Developed for the first time in Korea for predicting the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm...Analyzing data from 3.93 million people over 10 years
Oct 10, 2025
A joint research team from Eunpyeong St. Mary's Hospital (Hospital Director Bae Si-hyun) and Sungsil University developed a model that can predict the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm for the first time in Korea. This study is a large-scale study using big data from the National Health Insurance Corporation of 3.93 million Koreans and was published in the global journal Scientific Reports.
Abdominal aortic aneurysm is a fatal disease with an 80% mortality rate in rupture, but currently, screening is conducted only for male smokers aged 65 or older, so women, non-smokers, and patients under the age of 60 were excluded from the examination.
Professor Cho Hyung-jin of the vascular transplant surgery at Eunpyeong St. Mary's Hospital, Professor Hwang Jeong-ki of the corresponding author, and Professor Han Kyung-do of the Department of Information Statistics Insurance and Repair at Soongsil University are working on 'Development and Validation of Abdominal Aortic Prediction Model for Abdominant Aortic Prediction Model: a Nationwide population-based cohort study')' to track down 3.93 million Koreans for about 10 years using the National Health Insurance Corporation database. The research team developed a model that can predict the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm with high accuracy only with basic clinical information that can be obtained from medical examinations and proved that its predictive power is valid.
The research team selected 3,937,535 out of 4,234,415 adults who underwent medical examinations in 2009, excluding existing patients and incomplete data, as the final analysis targets. They were randomly assigned 70% to the model development group and 30% to the verification group and followed up for an average of more than 10 years, and as a result, 6,514 people (2.36%) in the development group and 2,836 people (2.40%) in the verification group were newly diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysm.
The research team then constructed a predictive model with 10 factors as major variables, including age, gender, obesity, smoking, drinking, diabetes, high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, chronic kidney disease, and cardio-cerebrovascular disease. And by scoring these factors, we built a predictive model that can calculate the likelihood of abdominal aortic aneurysm within five years for each individual, and demonstrated that patients' risks can be distinguished with more than 80% accuracy.
Interesting results were also confirmed in this study. Old age, men, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and chronic kidney disease were found to be major risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm, but diabetics were analyzed to have a lower risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm.
Professor Cho Hyung-jin explained, "This study is a long-term tracking abdominal aortic aneurysm prediction model using national health insurance data, and it is significant in that it presents a risk assessment tool that anyone can easily use only health examination data."
Professor Hwang Jeong-ki said, "This model can include patients who have been excluded from the existing screening criteria, contributing to early diagnosis and establishment of customized screening strategies."It will be of practical help in reducing the risk of sudden death from abdominal aortic aneurysm in the future."
Meanwhile, the results of the study were published in Scientific Reports (IF 3.9), an SCI-level international academic journal published by the world-renowned scientific journal Nature, and are receiving high attention from international academia.
Abdominal aortic aneurysm is a fatal disease with an 80% mortality rate in rupture, but currently, screening is conducted only for male smokers aged 65 or older, so women, non-smokers, and patients under the age of 60 were excluded from the examination.
Professor Cho Hyung-jin of the vascular transplant surgery at Eunpyeong St. Mary's Hospital, Professor Hwang Jeong-ki of the corresponding author, and Professor Han Kyung-do of the Department of Information Statistics Insurance and Repair at Soongsil University are working on 'Development and Validation of Abdominal Aortic Prediction Model for Abdominant Aortic Prediction Model: a Nationwide population-based cohort study')' to track down 3.93 million Koreans for about 10 years using the National Health Insurance Corporation database. The research team developed a model that can predict the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm with high accuracy only with basic clinical information that can be obtained from medical examinations and proved that its predictive power is valid.
The research team selected 3,937,535 out of 4,234,415 adults who underwent medical examinations in 2009, excluding existing patients and incomplete data, as the final analysis targets. They were randomly assigned 70% to the model development group and 30% to the verification group and followed up for an average of more than 10 years, and as a result, 6,514 people (2.36%) in the development group and 2,836 people (2.40%) in the verification group were newly diagnosed with abdominal aortic aneurysm.
The research team then constructed a predictive model with 10 factors as major variables, including age, gender, obesity, smoking, drinking, diabetes, high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, chronic kidney disease, and cardio-cerebrovascular disease. And by scoring these factors, we built a predictive model that can calculate the likelihood of abdominal aortic aneurysm within five years for each individual, and demonstrated that patients' risks can be distinguished with more than 80% accuracy.
Interesting results were also confirmed in this study. Old age, men, smoking, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and chronic kidney disease were found to be major risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm, but diabetics were analyzed to have a lower risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm.
Professor Cho Hyung-jin explained, "This study is a long-term tracking abdominal aortic aneurysm prediction model using national health insurance data, and it is significant in that it presents a risk assessment tool that anyone can easily use only health examination data."
Professor Hwang Jeong-ki said, "This model can include patients who have been excluded from the existing screening criteria, contributing to early diagnosis and establishment of customized screening strategies."It will be of practical help in reducing the risk of sudden death from abdominal aortic aneurysm in the future."
Meanwhile, the results of the study were published in Scientific Reports (IF 3.9), an SCI-level international academic journal published by the world-renowned scientific journal Nature, and are receiving high attention from international academia.
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This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
