First $400 million for a pitcher? How much do I have to pay for the skins? a statistical reporter's prediction

Apr 03, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Skins is spraying the ball vigorously against the Tampa Bay Rays on the 3rd (Korea time). Skins won his first win of the season with three hits and one run in seven innings. AP Yonhap News

Polskins will qualify as FA after the 2029 season. ImagesYonhap News

The Pittsburgh Pirates Paul Skins, who dominated the Major League mound since his debut last year, reported his first win of the season on the 3rd (Korea time) with good pitching as the No. 1 candidate for the Cy Young Award.

Skins started the away game against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida, and won his first game of the season by pitching three hits, six strikeouts, and one run (non-earned) in seven innings. Pittsburgh, led by Skins, won 4-2, breaking the chain of four consecutive losses.

Skins pitched well against the Miami Marlins on the 28th of last month with three hits, two walks, seven strikeouts and two runs in five ⅓ innings, but missed the victory because the bullpen allowed him to turn the tables. In two games, he recorded one win, a 1.46 ERA, 13 strikeouts, a WHIP of 0.65, and a 0.143 hit rate.

Skins threw 102 pitches on the day and did not give up any of the four pitches. Fastball restraints from 48 throws shot a maximum of 99.6 miles and an average of 98 miles, while the main weapon 'Splinker (Splitter + Sinker)' showed a maximum of 96.6 miles and an average of 94 miles.

Pittsburg Pirates polskins. ImagesYonhap News

He overwhelmed Tampa Bay's batters with stable pitching throughout the seven innings, such as putting them to bed with three outs in the second, fourth, fifth and seventh innings. He lost a point in the sixth inning with a 2-0 lead. The error was an excuse. He allowed a shortstop infield hit to leader Johnny Deluca. However, shortstop Isaiah Kiner-Falefa sent a bad pitch to first base, and Deluca advanced to second base.

Skins caught Yandy Diaz on a groundout to second base and was on third base with one out before Deluca homered and allowed a run while Brandon Law was grounded out to second base. It's a non-penalty because it's a base and a score due to a mistake. It was a strong contender for the Cy Young Award.

Leading local media have selected Skins as the strongest candidate for the Cy Young Award in this year's NL.

In the `MLB 2025 Ranking Top 100" announced by ESPN on the same day, Skins was remarkable as he ranked fifth, the highest among pitchers. ESPN is 'Splinker, Cutter, Thinker, Others, etc. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year is constantly developing weapons and trying to spend the season without an inning limit this year, his second year, 'Don't be surprised if he throws an ERA of less than two and more than 170 innings. It was evaluated as 'the realm of the cyberspace'.

Jackson Merrill hits a two-run home run in the third inning against Cleveland on the 3rd (Korea time). AFP Yonhap News

It is noteworthy that attention is slowly pouring into his ransom. San Diego Padres Jackson Merrill signed a nine-year, $135 million extension on the same day, naturally drawing attention to the Skins. Merrill is a rookie who ranked second after Skins in last year's NL Rookie of the Year vote. Will he perform like a sign by hitting a decisive two-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians again on this day?All.

Of course, it is difficult for Pittsburgh to offer Skins an extension contract with such conditions, and Skins is also likely to be reluctant to sign a long-term contract until he becomes an FA. In the end, it is only when the 2029 season is over and goes to the FA market to be evaluated for its true value.

The record for a major league pitcher is $325 million for 12 years held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yamamoto is not the problem if Skins completes six seasons without injury. Beyond Gerrit Cole, who signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees, he could be the first pitcher to reach $400 million.

In this regard, reporter The Athletic Tim Britton said on the 11th of last month, 'How much will it take to tie up Skins on a long-term contract?An article titled ' offered $200 million for 10 years. However, he said that even this was an extremely conservative amount evaluated by the Pittsburgh club.

Reporter Britton weighed the value of Skins' long-term extension contract in connection with the number of Cy Young awards.

It guarantees 170 million dollars for eight years from this year to 2032, and if it wins two or more Cy Young Awards during this period, it will be able to sign a contract for a total of 420 million dollars for 13 years with a team option of 250 million dollars, ▶ if it wins once, it will be able to sign a contract for a total of 360 million dollars for 12 years, and ▶ if it does not win a single award, it will be able to sign a contract for 290 million dollars for 11 years. However, this is a prediction that assumes that he will remain in Pittsburgh to the end.

If you become an FA, the nature of the discussion will change. Pittsburgh is more likely to trade the previous Skins. Just as he traded Cole, who was then a top starter, to the Houston Astros in January 2018.