ESPN has a 78% chance of being a jersey MVP, and Raleigh said he would win, but the level of voting is different
Sep 12, 2025
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Raleigh hit his 53rd home run of the season against the Atlanta Braves on the 8th (Korea time), and his cannon was silent in three games.
Raleigh, who is leading the home run total in both leagues, is arithmetically difficult to reach 60 home runs. Seattle has 146 games to play before the match against the St. Louis Cardinals on the 11th, with 16 games remaining.
Raleigh is likely to finish the season with 58 to 59 home runs. You can expect Raleigh's explosive power, but given his condition of batting .221 with eight home runs and an OPS of 0.862 in 26 games in the past month, the odds of getting seven home runs in 16 games do not seem very high.
Eventually, the prediction that Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees will be named MVP for the second consecutive year and the third time in his career began to emerge.
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The media reported that since the All-Star break, Raleigh has been batting in the early 20s, so his batting average for the season will fall below 0.240 as well. You may wonder why he is vulnerable to a season-ending decline. He's basically a catcher. The Mariners try to use him as a designated hitter as much as possible to ease his burden, but they can't help but get tired. If Raleigh floats like this and the Mariners fail to make the playoffs, Judge's typical season performance alone will give MVP voters confidence that they shouldn't have turned to Raleigh in the first place,' he wrote.
In other words, as Raleigh's momentum declined in the second half of the year, the votes of the BBWAA (National Baseball Journalists Association) shifted to Jersey in large numbers. In other words, at least 60 home runs and the team's advance to the playoffs are essential to press the jersey.
ESPN said `Rolly will break Mantle's record, but he doesn't reach 60 home runs. However, he predicted that his records are enough to check Judge's dominance in the finish line.
Mickey Mantle will surpass 54 home runs, the most in a season of switch heaters, which he wrote in 1961, but he will fail with 60 home runs. Still, this year's performance itself deserves to compete with Judge for MVP.
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As of the 11th, Judge ranks first in many categories in the AL, including runs (115), batting average (0.319), on-base percentage (0.440), slugging percentage (0.656), OPS (1.096) and Ruta (319). Coming in second place with 44 home runs and fifth place with 98 RBIs are not bad either. ESPN suggests a 78 percent chance of Judge being MVP. Of the 30 reporters, more than 20 are likely to vote first for Judge.
In AXE devised by ESPN, Judge ranks first with 153 and Raleigh ranks second with 144. AXE is a score that evaluates the value of players using statistics from Saber Metrics such as WAR, WPA, and CPA. 100 is the league average, and the higher the value, the higher the value is. Classify the players' value hierarchy by units of deviations '10'. In other words, the level itself is different because the value of the jersey is as high as '9' Raleigh.
This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
