It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power + Soto's on-base ability = Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%

Sep 11, 2025

It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power Soto's on-base ability Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%
LA Dodgers Shohei Ohtani hits a solo home run in the middle of the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles on the 8th (Korea time) and enters the dugout for a high-five with his teammates. ImagesYonhap News



It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power Soto's on-base ability Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%
Shohei Otani pitches against Baltimore on the 6th (Korea time). AP Yonhap News
The prevailing view is that Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers has a close 100% chance of winning MVP this season.

ESPN predicted on the 10th (Korea time) that Ohtani will be named NL MVP this season in a corner titled "2025 MLB Awards Outlook: Spend September and MVP, Cy Young Award, Others".

ESPN ranked the candidates for each category using an index called AXE. AXE is a score that evaluates the value of players using statistics from Saber Metrics such as WAR, WPA, and CPA. 100 is the league average, and the higher the value, the higher the value is.




Ohtani topped the list with AXE 152, beating New York Mets Juan Soto (140) by an overwhelming deviation. Philadelphia Phillies Trey Turner is third with AXE 138, while Chicago Cubs Pete Crow-Armstrong, San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. and Arizona Diamondbacks Heraldo Perdomo tied for fourth with AXE 135.

It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power Soto's on-base ability Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%
Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Schwarber. ImagesYonhap News
Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber, who is considered the closest MVP candidate to Ohtani, is tied for 10th with AXE 127. Schwarber is No. 1 in home runs and RBIs in the NL. However, if evaluated by AXE, Schwarber is difficult to get near the MVP candidate.

However, BBWAA's MVP selection criteria and evaluation methods are different for each individual and subjective. Still, the overall atmosphere is narrowed down to one or two people. The expected indicator reflecting this is the dividend rate of betting companies, that is, gamblers.




Ohtani's NL MVP dividend rate suggested by ESPN BET is -25,000. If you bet $100 on 'Otani=MVP', you'll get $0.4, or 40 cents, as a dividend. The rate of return is only 0.4%. It is about one-fifth to one-tenth of the interest rate of commercial banks.

ESPN BET set Schwaber's dividend rate at +2500, the second-lowest after Ohtani. This means that if you bet $100 on 'Schwarber=MVP', you'll earn $2500, which is 25 times higher. The rate of return is a whopping 2,500%. You will get $2,600 back, including $100 in principal. It is incomparable to Ohtani's MVP probability.

ESPN BET also suggested a 99.6% chance of Ohtani becoming MVP. In fact, it is 100 percent.




It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power Soto's on-base ability Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%
LA Dodgers Shohei Ohtani hits a solo home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles on the 8th (Korea time). AFP Yonhap News
ESPN's explanation is as follows.

The biggest obstacle and challenger to Otani's MVP award is Schwaber. Nothing against Schwarber, who is having a historic season. But the metrics do him no good. Although Schwaber is in the top ranks thanks to the joint ranking, the ranking is basically organized into Ohtani and other players. Ohtani combines Schwaber's power in the long-shot and home run categories and Soto's skills on base. Although Soto is showing remarkable figures in the stolen base category, Ohtani is also leading the NL base learning part if he is unrivaled in the scoring category. Moreover, Ohtani throws 36 innings as a pitcher, giving him a FIP 2.17 mark and a defensive value in contrast to Soto and Schwarber's negative defensive metrics. 'In a similar vein, Ohtani is NL No. 1 in both the WPA and CPA, with Soto second in the two sub-documents and Schwarber outside the top 10.'

At the same time, ESPN concluded that `Otani will be named NL MVP by an overwhelming margin.' In other words, he is a unanimous MVP.

It's unanimous again this year! Schwarber's power Soto's on-base ability Otani, ESPN's MVP probability is 99.6%
Shohei Otani steals second base in the third inning against Colorado on the 10th (Korea time). AP Yonhap News
Ohtani won all three MVPs unanimously in 2021 and 2023 during his time with the Los Angeles Angels and last season when he moved to the Dodgers. The MVP for the third consecutive year and the fourth in his career is also likely to be unanimous. Barry Bonds (seven times), the most MVP winner of all time, won the 2001-2004 award for the fourth consecutive year, followed by Ohtani for the third consecutive year.





This article was translated by Naver AI translator.