Kim Ha-sung, that's not 100 million dollars! In the end, demand is the key to predicting a three-year $50 million forecast in statistics media
Nov 05, 2025
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Local media The Athletic predicted on the 5th (Korea time) that the size of the FA contract that Kim Ha-sung will sign will be '50 million for three years (about 72 billion won).'
Kim Ha-sung said goodbye to the Atlanta Braves the day before, exercising the opt-out right to give up the player option with an annual salary of $16 million next year. It is now free to negotiate with 30 lightbulbs, including Atlanta.
Earlier on the 3rd, NBC Sports ranked Kim Ha-sung 34th overall and 3rd in shortstop while ranking the FA this winter, and 'Kim Ha-sung, who returned from shoulder surgery, did not meet expectations, but after moving to the Braves, he recovered by hitting three home runs with a slash line of 0.253/0.316/0.368 in 24 games' The race without money gave up because it was difficult to afford Kim Ha-sung's $16 million, but Kim Ha-sung, a shortstop with excellent defense and an offense average in the league, is expected to play at least that level in his first full-time season after returning. The key is whether he will go after the FA again after only signing a one-year contract and proving his value, or prefer a two- to three-year contract.'"
At the same time, he expected to sign a contract for $18 million a year. It can be seen as a vague estimate.
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He calculates the expected contract size of FA through mathematical and statistical methods. It's a rather complicated approach, roughly linking FA and extensions signed since 2014 and previously large contracts to the season's record, especially the FanGraphs WAR (fWAR), to the nearest case to the FA to produce contract sizes.
Reporter Britton also added subjective judgment by finding objective figures such as inflation and age, as well as factors other than fWAR and comparison cases.
There was no specific explanation for the expected contract size of Kim Ha-sung. However, he seems to have positively judged his recovery from offense and defense in the last month of September despite suffering from various injuries after returning to the team in July.
It is interesting to note that he offered a three-year contract, not a one-year contract. The average annual salary (AAV) is $16.67 million, slightly more than next year's option that Kim Ha-sung gave up.
MLB.com dealt with the news of Kim Ha-sung's FA declaration on the 4th and predicted somewhat positively that `Kim Ha-sung, who is 30 years old this year, can lead to a multi-year contract with a minimum average annual salary of more than $20 million', but reporter Britten's expectation is lower than this.
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Shortstop's biggest fish, Bobby??be at the bottom of the field with. Trevor Story is likely to stay with the Boston Red Sox. In the end, it is difficult to find a shortstop like Kim Ha-sung when the league's average offensive power, the defense that honored the Gold Glove, and the league's top-class mobility are combined. This is why MLB.com predicted a multi-year contract worth more than $20 million in AAV.
Not only Atlanta but also the New York Yankees need shortstop. If Rain leaves, the same goes for the Toronto Blue Jays. MLB.com said Kim Ha-sung could receive a love call from the Yankees.
Meanwhile, reporter Britton predicted the contract size of No. 1 FA Kyle Tucker at $460 million for 12 years. In terms of total amount, it ranks fourth in history after Juan Soto ($765 million in 15 years), Shohei Ohtani ($700 million in 10 years), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($500 million in 14 years). It is up to the "consumer" to decide whether 'Tucker is worth that much', but compared to Guerrero, a top-class hitter in the Major League, it can be seen as an expectation of a bubble. British journalist said that `generally, the projections presented in this section may feel somewhat high.'
This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
