Concerns over halving of Korean population in 60 years...OECD publishes booklet containing low birth rate status and countermeasures
Mar 05, 2025
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The OECD said the recent slight increase in marriage and fertility rates is interpreted as a result of some recovery in marriages and births, which were delayed during the pandemic, and it is unclear whether these changes will lead to a long-term increase in fertility rates.
The OECD predicts that if Korea's fertility rate remains at its current level, the population will halve over the next 60 years, and by 2082 about 58% of the total population will be aged 65 or older. In addition, the ratio of elderly support (the ratio of the population aged 65 or older to the population aged 20 to 64) is expected to surge from 28% to 155%.
The OECD cited higher spending on private education and higher housing costs as the reasons Korea's fertility rate is especially lower than in other developing countries. In addition, the culture of long working hours and the lack of flexibility in working hours and places were also cited as reasons for the decline in the fertility rate. The social perception of marriage and childbirth, such as gender role recognition that women should take care of their families and out-of-wedlock childbirth, also affected the fertility rate.
In order to prevent Korea's fertility rate from falling, it is recommended that family policies be reviewed by sector first. In the field of childcare, it was suggested that the provision time of childcare services and commuting time should be more matched, and workplace childcare facilities should be further expanded.
The improvement of the parental leave system was also pointed out. Korea's income replacement rate (80%) for parental leave is the highest among OECD countries, but the upper limit of payment (1.5 million won as of 2024) is 46% of the average wage, lower than Sweden (95%), Norway (124%), and France (82%). In addition, it is the third lowest among OECD countries due to strict eligibility for parental leave and low utilization rates of qualified people.
The OECD pointed out that Korea's fertility rate continued to decline despite increased public spending on family policies, and recommended that public support should be used to improve the quality and accessibility of childcare, improve the parental leave system, and reform the labor market rather than direct financial support.
It also suggested that as it takes time for Korea to raise the fertility rate, it should consider expanding women's employment, extending their working lives, and actively accepting foreign workers as alternatives to make up for the labor shortage in the meantime. If the working age and immigration are increased, and the total fertility rate is raised to 1.1, the gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 12% by 2070.
Meanwhile, there has been a report on Korea's low birth rate in the OECD, but this is the first time an official booklet has been published.
This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
