South Korea's Next-Generation Ace Chances 1.46% of Unfinished Worst Relegation Crisis Shock to Third Division

Apr 29, 2025

Courtesy of the Korea Football Association

Stoke City's shocking possibility of relegation still remains.

Stoke will play the final round of the English Championship (second division) in the 2024-2025 season with Derby County at Pride Park Stadium in Derby, England on the 3rd (Korea time). Stoke is 18th with 50 points and Derby 19th with 49 points.

Ahead of the final round, all three relegation teams have yet to be confirmed for the championship. Only Cardiff City, the lowest-ranked team, has been demoted. Plymouth Argyle, ranked 23rd, is also yet to be confirmed, but even if he wins the rest of the round, he will not be able to overcome the goal difference of more than 10 goals.

Stoke, ranked 18th, and Hull City, ranked 22nd, are competing for the last place on the relegation train. It is a very unfortunate situation to have Bae Joon-ho, the next-generation ace for the Korean national team, in Stoke.

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Fortunately, Stoke's chances of being relegated to the third division are very low. This is because it is a scenario that is possible only when a number of worst conditions are combined. If Stoke loses to Derby, 22nd-ranked Hull City and 21st-ranked Luton Town win, and 20th-ranked Preston North End brings at least one point, Stoke will drop to 22nd, confirming relegation.

In terms of probability, it is a scenario of less than 2%. According to an analysis by the soccer statistics media OPTA, Stoke's relegation probability is only 1.46%. The 19th-ranked Derby is predicted to be 2.8%, 20th-ranked Preston is 13.9%, 21st-ranked Luton is 30.64%, and Hull City is expected to be relegated as it is 51.2%.

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The odds are really low, but it is the relegation war that we can never let our guard down. Stoke is sad to be in this situation. From the Queens Park Rangers in round 39 to Sheffield Wednesday in round 43, they gained momentum with three wins and two draws, but they were again in danger of relegation after losing to Leeds United and Sheffield United.

In the crisis of Stoke, Bae Jun-ho has to do it in the end. Only when Bae Joon-ho, who set a career high by scoring three goals and five assists in 44 league games this season, flies will Stoke not fall into the relegation hole. Bae Joon-ho has been relatively quiet recently after scoring an offensive point in the QPR match against Yang Min-hyuk. It was time for Bae Jun-ho to wake up.