I envy you. Lee Kang-in's PSG, 164.6 billion won, right? AI, Club World Cup winner's big prediction...What is the probability of advancing to the round of 16 in Ulsan?

Jun 11, 2025

신화Yonhap News

AFP Yonhap News

The 'War of Tran' is just around the corner.

Interest in the FIFA Club World Cup winner, which will open in the U.S. on the 15th (Korea time), is increasing. The tournament, which costs 1 billion dollars in total prize money (about 1.375 trillion won), will feature the championship of six continental clubs and the top 32 teams to compete for the championship through the group stage and final tournament. It is a stage where you can enjoy a jackpot of up to $120 million (about 164.6 billion won) if you win from the first group match to the final. Ulsan HD will be the only player in the K-League to compete on behalf of Asia along with Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia), Urawa Reds (Japan), and Al Ain (United Arab Emirates).

The sports data analysis site Opta recently predicted the winning team through more than 10,000 simulations on a supercomputer. According to this, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), which recently won the European Champions League, had the highest probability of advancing to the finals with 30.9% and 18.5% of winning.

Lee Kang-in's team, PSG, had its best season. Under Luis Enrique's leadership, he won the European Champions League trophy as well as the League 1 and the Cup de France (FA Cup). Although the fatigue accumulated during the season is not easy, the supercomputer concluded that PSG will continue to win the Champions League.

◇Photo source=옵타

Manchester City is the next. OPTA introduced Manchester City's probability of advancing to the finals at 29.6% and its probability of winning the championship at 17.8%. PSG and Manchester City are the only teams with a 15% or more chance of winning. In other words, the two teams put weight on playing a match for the championship in the final.

Bayern Munich, where Kim Min-jae plays, ranked third with a 23.7% chance of advancing to the finals and 12.8% chance of winning, while Inter Milan, which finished second in the European Champions League, ranked fourth with a 23.2% chance of advancing to the finals and 12.3% chance of winning. Real Madrid ranked fifth with a 19.3% chance of advancing to the finals and a 9.8% chance of winning.

The Club World Cup is expected to be dominated by the European tax, with European teams taking all the 10th place in this statistics. Among non-European teams, River Plate (Argentina) ranked 12th with a 0.3% chance of winning. It is interesting to note that Al Hilal, who is leading the team with 'Oil Money', also ranked the highest among Asian teams with a 0.3% chance of winning.

Ulsan, led by head coach Kim Pan-gon, will face Dortmund (Germany), Fluminense (Brazil), and Mamelody Sundowns (South Africa) in Group F. Ulsan will play its first match against the Sundowns on the 18th, and face Fluminense on the 22nd and Dortmund on the 26th. With Dortmund and Pluminensee expected to compete for the first place, Ulsan is aiming to advance to the round of 16 by catching the Sundowns and earning points against Pluminensee and Dortmund.

◇photo courtesy of the Korea Professional Football Association

The prediction of supercomputers is rather pessimistic. Ulsan's chances of advancing to the round of 16 are 20.8% and its chances of winning are 0%. This is a disappointing result compared to Dortmund's 92.7% of the rest of Group F's chances of advancing to the round of 16, Sundown's 47.1% and Pluminense's 39.4%. However, Ulsan is focusing on the challenge without regret.

This article was translated by Naver AI translator.