Presenting a predictive model for the spread of infectious diseases based on population movement...New Milestones in Response to the Pandemic
Oct 23, 2025
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According to Inha University on the 23rd, this study was conducted by Cho Chang-hee, a Ph.D. student from Inha University's Statistical Physics Laboratory, as the first author under the guidance of Professor Lee Jae-woo. Dr. Kwon Oh-kyu of the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Dr. Lee Kyung-eun of the National Institute of Environmental Research participated as co-researchers.
The research team overcame the limitations of the SIR (Infectious Person, Infected Person, and Recovery Person) model, which is based on the existing mean-field theory, and presented a new metapopulation infectious disease model that reflects actual population movement data.
As a result of analyzing KT's mobile phone movement data and extracting the movement patterns between regions, it was found that people's travel distance follows the 'Levy distribution' rather than the normal distribution. This means that some of the population will travel much longer than expected. It made it possible to reflect the spread of infectious diseases more realistically than the existing model.
Based on people's mobility characteristics, the proposed 'Commuter Metapopulation Model' accurately reproduced COVID-19 spread data.
It has been scientifically identified that routine commuting and interregional movement form the path of transmission of infectious diseases, and has provided important implications for future pandemic response policies.
The results of this study are evaluated as innovative attempts that combine complex system theory and network science into research on the spread of infectious diseases. In the future, it is expected to be of great help in establishing customized quarantine strategies in consideration of regional movement characteristics in the situation of large-scale infectious diseases.
Professor Lee Jae-woo explained that "the spread of infectious diseases is not just a probability phenomenon, but a complex system phenomenon intertwined with the movement and interaction of numerous people.".
Meanwhile, a paper containing the results of this study 'Commuter Metapopulation Models for Epidemiological Spread in Human Mobility Networks' was selected as a featured article by Chaos, a world-renowned physics journal, and was recently published on the first page of the online edition.
At the same time, it is introduced as a promotional article for AIP News published by the American Institute of Physics (AIP), proving once again the high academic status of domestic researchers.
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This article was translated by Naver AI translator.
