7% → 7.9% Up Lee Jung-hoo and San Francisco's Fall Fate, Is It a Realistically Possible Scenario

Aug 04, 2025

Can miracles happen in the real world.

'Grandchild of the Wind'Lee Jung-hoo showed signs of a steep recovery in hitting in August, leading his first team, the San Francisco Giants, to the Winning Series in a long time.

Lee Jung-hoo started as the seventh center fielder in an away game against the New York Mets at City Field in New York on the 4th (Korean time) and achieved his first '4 hit game' since entering the Major League. On this day, Lee Jung-hoo's batting sense was as hot as the summer sun. He added four hits (one double) in four at-bats and one walk, achieving five consecutive on-base games. Five consecutive on-base hits in a game is also the first time since entering the Major League. Lee Jung-hoo recorded three hits, a double, a stolen base, and two runs in the outfield, raising his batting average to 0.258 (103 hits in 399 at-bats) for the season.

Thanks to Lee Jung-hoo's brilliant performance in the lower lineup, San Francisco won a great victory with a score of 12-4. As a result, San Francisco won the winning series with two wins and one loss in three consecutive away games against the Mets. It is the first time in 11 days that San Francisco has achieved the Winning Series since the three consecutive away games (2-1) against the Atlanta Braves held from July 22nd to 24th. It is the second winning series in the second half of the season.

The victory is quite important for San Francisco's second half. First of all, thanks to this victory, San Francisco regained its .500 winning percentage (56 wins and 56 losses). At the same time, the possibility of advancing to the postseason, which seemed impossible, has also increased slightly.

Before the game, San Francisco's chances of advancing to the postseason were only 7%. The figure was presented by FanGraphs, a U.S. company that analyzes player and team performance with a mathematical probability calculation tool.

However, this figure changed interestingly before and after the game. San Francisco's chances of advancing to the postseason, which were 7% before the game against the Mets, fell to 6.7% shortly after the game. It was a result of reflecting some of the games of other competing teams.

However, after all the games were over, the figure was readjusted and announced at 7.9%. The figure is up 1.2% from the previous day and an overall increase of 0.9% from the previous day.

To put it bluntly, the 7.9% chance is still very slim. Arithmetically, it can be seen that there is some possibility left, but in reality, it is safe to say that it is almost 0%. In this state, it is close to a miracle that San Francisco will advance to the fall stage.

Nevertheless, the possibility of advancing to the postseason due to victory can still be a hope factor for San Francisco fans. Still, many San Francisco fans hope for a miracle.

Then, how much better will San Francisco have to do in the future to produce a miraculous result of advancing to the postseason.

Arithmetically, San Francisco can expect to advance to the postseason if it adds at least 35 wins (15 losses) in the remaining 50 games. In this case, the final result will be 91 wins and 71 losses, and the winning margin will be +20 wins and the winning rate will be 0.562. If San Francisco performs this well, it can beat the Los Angeles Dodgers (65-47, winning margin +18 wins, winning percentage of 0.580) to win the district championship based on its current performance. Even if they don't win the district championship, at least securing a wild card can be easy.

In other words, San Francisco needs to have a whopping 70% winning percentage in the remaining 50 games. It seems such an unrealistic figure. Therefore, criticism is likely to arise that it is a prospect of torturing hope by playing numbers.

However, 'miracle' sometimes appears in the world of sports when it is accompanied by earnest effort and desire.

There is a good example. It is a miracle caused by the Toronto Blue Jays, who were evaluated as the `lower end of life' in the American League East in 2015, just 10 years ago.

Toronto Blue Jays players hug and cheer each other as they confirmed a miraculous 'reverse district win with their victory over Baltimore on October 1, 2015 (Korea time). Toronto won 42 games (14) in 56 games in the second half, winning a dramatic come-from-behind victory. It is the first district championship in 22 years since 1993. Sports Chosun DB

Toronto, led by head coach John Gibson at the time, had 50 wins and 51 losses until July 29, 2015, one win shy of a 50% win rate. The ranking was also only fourth on the planet. The victory over the New York Yankees, who were No. 1 at the time, was seven games wide. It seemed almost impossible to get a wild card, too. It is similar to San Francisco in 2025 in terms of timing and performance.

However, Toronto later wrote a miraculous reversal drama. Toronto, which suddenly woke up after that day, swept 42 wins in a total of 56 games until the first game of the doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles on October 1. During this period, the winning rate reached a whopping 0.750 (42 wins and 14 losses).

In the end, Toronto won its 92nd victory (65 losses) on October 1 against Baltimore (15-2) with five remaining games left in the season after playing a `storm reverse' as if in a baseball cartoon. At that time, the game against the Yankees (86-71) was a whopping six games. Toronto ended its remaining five games with one win and four losses, ending the season with a 93-69 record.

After all, San Francisco's reversal may not be a completely futile story. Ten years ago Toronto made a miracle with a .75 percent winning percentage in the remaining games. San Francisco only needs to be shot at 70%. It's easier than Toronto. If high-paying hitters such as Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, and Lee Jung-hoo explode, it is a miracle worth staring at.

Reporter Lee Won-man wman@sportschosun.com

This article was translated by Naver AI translator.